More cold days than warm this winter

Hernando Countians have endured more days of sub-freezing weather this year than sunny, 70-degree weather.

The low temperatures since the Dec. 21 winter solstice have plummeted to 40 degrees or below more often than not, according to the National Weather Service.

After all is said and done, this winter could make history.

"This is definitely an anomaly," said forecaster Todd Barron. "This is probably going to rank in the top 10 or top five among the worst winters we've had on record."

El Nino is the most-famous culprit of the ongoing chill, but at least one more major factor has come into play, said Barron, who works for the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

A climatic phenomenon, known as Arctic oscillation, has caused havoc on the weather patterns across the Southeast and elsewhere, he said.

The atmospheric pressure in the polar region clashes with weather patterns to the south, which causes abnormal temperatures and conditions.

Compared to the last few years, Brooksville has seen an abundance of rain this winter.

January had a total of 3.87 inches of rain in the northern region of the 16-county water district, nearly 40 percent higher than the average.

As of Wednesday, the amount of rainfall for February already had surpassed the historical average - 4.21 inches compared to 3.08 inches.

"It looks like El Nino will continue into the summer and we'll continue to have above-average rainfall maybe into the fall," said Robyn Felix, a spokeswoman with the Southwest Florida Water Management District (Swiftmud).

El Nino is characterized as the warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, which can cause an array of weather disturbances across the country. In the Southeast, that mostly includes cold, rainy weather.

"Normally, the winter season is our dry season, but we see a lot more rain during periods of El Nino," Felix said. "There have been other years when we've had wet winters like this."

In terms of rain, the current winter has been wetter than normal, but far from unusual, based on Swiftmud data.

The last two significant El Ninos - in 1997 and 2002 - drew more than twice as much rain for the month of December.

As for the cold weather, Brooksville has consistently seen daily highs that are 20 degrees below normal.

The normal jet stream patterns that flow west to east have been affected by a wall of low pressure along Northeast Canada, which has deflected the cold air toward the Southeast, said Andy Mussoline, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.com.

"With the block there in the Canadian Maritimes, the cold air has only one way to go and that's south," he said.

As of Friday, there were 58 days of winter. Thirty-eight of those days included low temperatures that dropped to 40 degrees or below in Brooksville, according to the National Weather Service.

Since Jan. 1, there have been 20 days of sub-freezing temperatures. Conversely, there have been 19 days of temperatures 70 or above, forecasters said.

Today's weather probably won't be an improvement. The low is expected to be a chilly 32, while the high, 48, won't surpass the probability of rain - 50 percent.