Ginny should get on board

I was glad to read Ginny Brown-Waite's letter correcting distortions about her record. However, she pushed along another distortion by referring to the "failed stimulus package."

Look, when President Barack Obama came into office, the economy had been in recession for more than a year. The Bush administration and Congress had just undertaken a massive bank bailout designed to get credit flowing again. Both Bush and Obama administration advisers thought that banks would begin lending and the recession would bottom with 8 percent unemployment.

Instead, credit remained frozen. During the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, the economy was in headlong collapse, making 10 percent unemployment inevitable. In February 2009, as the Congress was debating the stimulus plan (aka the Recovery and Reinvestment Act), they did not yet have the numbers that showed the extent of the collapse.

Nevertheless, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis reports, the contraction nearly stopped during 2nd quarter 2009, with increased government spending providing the brake. We had positive GDP growth in third quarter 2009, led by more government spending while the Cash for Clunkers program pushed an upsurge in consumer spending. We now know that we had very good GDP growth in fourth quarter 2009. This time government spending was down a bit. Consumer spending and inventory investment were up.

If history is any guide, we should see a return to job growth by spring. The unemployment rate should go down slowly as discouraged workers reenter the workforce. By summer, absent another oil shock, we should be able to notice that we are in a recovery. But unemployment will remain high for a couple of years. Areas like Hernando County will probably significantly lag the national recovery.

To sum up: The president came into office during an economic collapse. His Congressional allies passed tax cuts and spending programs to address the problem. In less than six months the recession was over.

Unemployment is still unacceptably high, but unemployment always lags GDP changes. The administration is now shifting its focus to creating jobs.

This looks to me like a president and administration are aggressively addressing the problem and largely succeeding. Maybe Ms. Brown-Waite should get on board.

Dallas Dunlap

Brooksville