Jobless Rate Expected To Worsen

How long does someone wallow in a bad job market before deciding on a fresh start?

While the recession lingers and the job market continues to worsen, the labor force could taper off noticeably. Eventually, people might look elsewhere for greener pastures, one economist said.

Hernando County's unemployment rate is more than 50 percent higher than the national average. It has increased for nine consecutive months.

"You don't just languish in a place where there are no job prospects," said Sean M. Snaith, the director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

The economic tracking agency, which is part of the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida, recently published its national economic forecast for 2009.

Snaith is predicting the national unemployment rate - which currently sits at 8.1 percent - will continue to drift upward through this year and into 2010. It could peak at 9.5 percent before it begins its "painfully slow decline," according to the report.

As for Florida, the unemployment rate is likely to exceed 10 percent, Snaith said.

"We're not going to have those rocket boosters to get us out of this recession, like population growth and construction growth," he said. "There's just not much of an incentive for people to move to Florida, particularly job seekers."

Secondly, retirees will be less likely to move to the area this year and next because of the crisis on Wall Street, Snaith said. Much of their retirement money has evaporated.

The unemployment rate typically lags behind the business cycle. Even when the economy has emerged from a recession, unemployment can still rise.

Snaith predicted the job market wouldn't show signs of improvement until the second half of 2011. He isn't alone.

A closer look at the national numbers shows construction and manufacturing will decline by 12.47 percent and 10.61, respectively, in 2009.

The decline in the housing market already has had a devastating effect on Hernando County's economy. The local unemployment rate for January was at 12.4 percent, the second-worst in Florida.

"The future doesn't bode well, that's for sure," Snaith said of Hernando County's economic outlook. "Could it reach 20 percent? I guess I wouldn't rule that out, but when it starts to get that high, people will start to consider other options."

Some of those ominous trends might have already begun. The labor force in Hernando County in December 2008 was at 63,822. It declined by 262 in January.

In spite of the slight decrease, the number of unemployed workers jumped from 6,914 to 7,875. The jobless rate itself went from 10.8 percent to 12.4 percent.

The numbers for February will be released Friday.

Mike McHugh, the director of the Hernando County Office of Business Development, is not convinced there will be an automatic drop in the local labor force due to rising unemployment. The high number of job seekers actually makes the area more attractive for industries.

"If anything, we have a lot of good, highly skilled workers available in Hernando County and that's a (positive) indication for any employer," said McHugh. "If they need workers with a lot of talent, they've got that here."

Don Silvernell, the director of the Hernando County Airport and Industrial Park, agreed with McHugh and said the pool of job applicants is an inducement for those companies looking to expand, open or relocate to Florida.

He doesn't think people will move en masse because the recession is affecting everyone. Florida does not have anywhere close to the worst unemployment in the nation, he said.

"Are the employment opportunities really much better elsewhere compared to here? I don't think so," Silvernell said.