Retail Improves Slightly Over The Past Three Weeks

Warm weather and a stout Valentine's Day shopping crowd helped make last week a favorable one for the retail industry.

The week ending Feb. 14 was the third consecutive week-to-week improvement in the retail sector, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers out of New York.

Some forecasters think the recent numbers are an indication an upswing is not far away.

"It is a sign that things are going to improve this year," said ICSC spokeswoman Erin Hershkowitz.

Even so, most of the improvements are coming from discount and wholesale stores. Most chains are still suffering through the recession.

"We feel this year is going to be a transition year," Hershkowitz said. "In September, things will start to improve."

In spite of the week-to-week improvements, demand is still "sluggish" on a year-over-year basis, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs index.

The .9 percent improvement from last week compared to the week prior is based on "seasonably warm weather" and the discounts related to the holiday, Hershkowitz said.

ICSC has seen an improvement in the retail industry three weeks in a row and six out of the last nine weeks.

However, when compared to the year before, retail has seen no improvement. Every week since Dec. 20, 2008, there has been a year-to-year decrease.

The week ending Feb. 14 showed a .9 percent decrease compared to the same week in 2008.

By all accounts, the Christmas shopping season was a bust in nearly every retail category. Major department stores and apparel and jewelry retailers suffered the most. Heading into February, no one was predicting any good news for a while.

While some economists have predicted steady progress in the retail sector by September, those growth numbers are not going to be significant, at least not at first, they said.

"There's only going to be slow improvement," said Hershkowitz. "We're not going to wake up in September and everything will be back to the way they were a year and a half ago."