Home prices drop 41.5% in 3 years

There has been a 41.5 percent decline in the average sales price of a single-family home in the past three years, according to new information from the property appraiser's office.
That is a "sobering" statistic, said Nick Nikkinen, director of special projects for the property appraiser's office.
Property Appraiser Alvin Mazourek said he has been property appraiser since 1997, and this is the first year he's seen any significant value drops in terms of home prices that affect tax assessments.
"I've never seen the market like this," he said. "Oh, there have been some ups and downs and bumps, but this has been the most fluctuation in values I've ever seen."
And next year should be worse.
"I think basically it's going to be bad, if not worse, as far as actual values of homes and all types of property dropping," Mazourek said.
With only 632 single-family home sales through July 1, the county will be hard-pressed to match the 1,619 total achieved in 2008, he said.
"I know Realtors are hoping that we've hit bottom, but I don't know," he said. "I don't have a crystal ball."
The new report, which charts historic averages of countywide single-family home price sales, shows that 2003 was the first year Hernando County experienced a double-digit increase - 11.69 percent - in the average sales price from the prior year.
Those percentage increases rose steadily through 2005, when it reached a peak of 25.74 percent.
In 2006, the percentage change was 16.95 percent.
The following year, the bottom fell out.
In 2007, for the first time, the county experienced a negative percent change of minus 11.24 percent, followed in 2008 by a minus 15.42 percent change.
Through July 1 of this year, there is already a 14.91 percent decline in the average sales price of a single-family home.
Nikkinen said he used the information from this chart to help calculate the new tax assessments that went out to residents this month.

Silver lining?

Hernando County Association of Realtors President Marilyn Pearson-Adams found the report fascinating and said it gives an important overview of the county.
In the early years of growth on the county's west side - with the development of Spring Hill - there was little, if any, price appreciation of homes, she said.
Also, there was little depreciation of pricing until the 1987 stock market crash, she said.
"We once again began to see appreciation in home prices from about 1992 and started to experience what we used to refer to as a 'natural market,'" Pearson-Adams said.
A natural market is one where there is a 1 to 5 percent appreciation per year, as reflected in the new county report.
Pearson-Adams said the opening of the Suncoast Parkway in 2001 spurred construction of restaurants, shops, schools and other amenities. Along with the affordable housing prices in Hernando County, home prices here began to accelerate faster than usual, she said.
At that time, there were also less stringent lending guidelines which created a housing market that could not sustain itself, she said.
"In simple terms, when appreciation exceeds the average increase in wages and the average everyday person can no longer afford to buy or keep their home, and the job market is in flex, we have today's housing market," Pearson-Adams said.
The report shows people who bought homes after 2003 were hit hard by the declining value of their homes.
Pearson-Adams said that as the market corrects itself, home ownership will be a reality for more families.
"Our appraised values from the property appraiser, as noted in our TRIM (Truth in Millage) notices this year, will also begin to correct themselves," she said.
The total number of single-family home sales from the Hernando County Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service would also indicate a long-awaited market correction.
A total of 1,367 homes have sold from Jan. 1 through Aug. 25, compared to 1,017 homes sold during the same period in 2008.
Meanwhile, the Florida Association of Realtors issued a report Wednesday that said rising housing prices, stock market gains and the lack of any new setbacks in the national economy have boosted Florida's consumer confidence three points to 70 this month, according to a University of Florida survey.
That has led to some encouraging signs in the state's housing market, Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said in a press release.
"We are not out of this recession yet, particularly here in Florida, but things are not nearly as bad as they were a year ago," McCarty said.
Home sales have picked up both nationally and in Florida, and falling prices suggest a bottoming out of the housing slump, McCarty said.
If foreclosures continue, they could depress home prices, McCarty said. The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that 23 percent of Florida mortgages in the second quarter of 2009 were either in foreclosure or late on payments.