Reformers Rarely Capture White House

Emperor Nero fiddled while Rome burned. So claim many historians, although the tale seems a tad apocryphal.

Senator Obama ate a $28,000 steak with Hollywood "A-listers" at a Beverly Hills Democratic fundraiser while the U.S. economy tanked. So reports TMZ, the popular cable TV version of a supermarket tabloid.

Rome recovered, of course, ages ago and has gone on to become one of the leading capitals of the world.

Obama will probably recover, and win the White House as the ultimate prize. Whenever the economy is in crisis or the nation is involved in unpopular foreign wars, the American electorate will turn its back on the man, or the political party, in the White House.

Furthermore, historians will assert that a reformer rarely captures the White House. Teddy Roosevelt, then? He was a vice president who inherited the top job. When Roosevelt ran for president again as a Bull Moose reformer, he lost.

The Illinois senator's opponent, Republican candidate John McCain, is campaigning on a platform of reforms.

By precedent, then, Senator Obama should be our next president. Hands down. With or without carrying "swing state" Florida. It won't be all that easy, though.

For starters, Obama is going to raise taxes. By nature, Democrats are "tax and spend." Florida is anti-tax, recently voting to put the brakes on property taxes. Obama's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, has called paying higher taxes "patriotic." What planet is he from? It's not patriotic; it's ridiculous.

Look at the backlash old President Bush (No. 41) created when he actually raised taxes after campaigning not to. We dumped Bush Sr. for Bill Clinton who, interestingly, has been anything but "over the top" in his endorsement of Obama.

Secondly, we have the whole "experience" issue. McCain has 26 years in Congress, plus six painful years as a POW in the "Hanoi Hilton;" Obama is only half-way through his first term in the Senate. He hasn't co-sponsored a single bill yet. We won't be hearing all that much about experience.

It's rather surprising, however, that more hasn't been made out of the evergreen about judging a man by the company he keeps. Obama lost quite a few votes when his pastor of 20 years, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, screamed those illustrious words, "God damn America."

What's more, Obama had a political and financial alliance with Bill Ayers, a founding member of the Weathermen group of urban guerrillas 40 years ago. Ayers even boasts of bombing the Pentagon, now that's he's legally gotten away with it.

Finally, I have a gut feeling that race is going to be a silent, but devastating, issue that may cost a man of color the presidential election. Many voters harbor racial prejudices, which they may not admit when a pollster questions them face-to-face. It could be a different ending in the anonymity of the voting booth.

The issue may eventually wind up losing Obama anywhere between five and 10 percent of the nation's vote - huge in any tight race.

Consider the hundreds of thousands of Boston Irish, now scattered all over the country. They've been harboring racist sentiments ever since school busing was forced on them more than a generation ago.

Think, too, of the millions of white Middle-Americans living in closely-knit rural communities west of the Mississippi. Or, paraphrasing Obama recently: all those people with guns and religion.

A regular columnist for Hernando Today, John Herbert lives in Spring Hill.