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Hernando Today

Stats: 1 of 4 Homes On Market In Foreclosure

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By MICHAEL D. BATES

Hernando Today

Published: March 29, 2009

BROOKSVILLE - Civic activist Blaise Ingoglia said he spent 100 hours poring over sales data, court records and other documents to compile a statistical analysis on the state of the housing market in Hernando County.

And what he found isn't all that promising.

• One out of every four homes on the market is a foreclosure or "short sale," which is driving down the price of homes. In short sales, the bank agrees to take less than the money owed on the home in foreclosure.

• One out of every four homes (23 percent so far year-to-date) sold is through conventional loan financing (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac). Conversely, 55 percent are cash transactions, a sign that investors are buying up properties and renting them out.

• The county is relying heavily on federally insured loans such as FHA (which requires 3.5 percent down) and USDA (zero percent down).

• A total of 58.6 percent of all sales in 2008 were homesteaded properties. Ingoglia calls this a "troubling trend" because traditionally, homesteads made up 78.6 percent of all properties.

Ingoglia disputed recent foreclosure and home inventory figures from Marilyn Pearson-Adams, president of the Hernando County Association of Realtor (HCAR), who said home inventory had dropped from 4,154 homes to 3,107.

Pearson-Adams used those numbers, which she said she based on current multi-listing service numbers, to argue her case to county commissioners to refocus a planned economic recovery program away from solely housing and concentrate on job creation.

That brought a sharp rebuke from Ingoglia, the author of the Comprehensive Plan for Recovery (CPR) plan, which is being discussed as a way to stimulate the local economy.

But Ingoglia said a large part of those 1,047 homes dropped from inventory were not "absorbed" into the marketplace.

"The reason that the inventory levels went down is because the listings either expired and or were withdrawn," Ingoglia said.

"The inventory level effectively went up," Ingoglia said. "The reason why this is important is because at some point in the future, the homeowners that had their listings either expire or withdrew, most likely still want to sell."

According to Ingoglia, there have been 1,805 sold listings and 1,984 new listings from January 2008 through February 2009.

During that period, 1,542 listings were withdrawn and 3,002 expired.

Responding to these new statistics, Adams said it is inaccurate to include withdrawn and expired listings in the calculations because those properties are often relisted and return to active inventory.

Adams said she couldn't comment on Ingoglia's analysis without doing more research on the hard numbers.

Ingoglia said Adams is correct that some of those properties are relisted but not enough to make a huge dent.

Ingoglia, CEO of Hartland Homes, said Hernando County's housing market will bounce back when the national economy improves.

People in the Northeast and elsewhere are anxious to move to the Sunshine State, Ingoglia said, but are just waiting to unload their primary residences up North.

He expects that turnaround to occur late in the third quarter of 2009.

Until then, he believes real estate agents need to do a better job of promoting the county's chief asset - low-priced homes - to Hillsborough and Pasco counties.

Thanks to the Suncoast Parkway, Hernando is now only minutes within reach of those work centers, he said.

Ingoglia said there are many first-time homebuyers who mistakenly believe they cannot buy a home because they couldn't qualify for a loan.

But with prices so low, the availability of Neighborhood Stabilization Program money for qualified applicants and the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers, there is no better time to buy a home, he said.

Unless real estate agents pursue these first-time buyers, the market is going to belong to the renters, Ingoglia added.

"Spring Hill will effectively be turned into 'Renter-ville,'" he said.

Meanwhile, a report issued Friday by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) shows out of 1,000 potential first-time home buyers, 78 percent said now is a good time to buy a home, despite widespread concern about the economy.

And 68 percent think now is a better time to buy than six months ago, according to the Century 21 First-Time Home Buyer Survey.

According to FAR, prices are the driving motivation for potential first-time home buyers, with more than eight of 10 first-time home buyers (85 percent) saying they consider current home prices affordable, and 73 percent citing current prices as a major factor in their decision to buy now.

However, potential first-time buyers are still split between "being willing to consider an offer now" (42 percent) and "waiting for prices to go down before they seriously consider making a purchase" (48 percent).

Reporter Michael D. Bates can be reached at 352-544-5290 or mbates@hernandotoday.com.

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