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Hernando Today

Economist Releases Forecast For Hernando

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By MICHAEL D. BATES

Hernando Today

Published: March 12, 2009

Talk about dejÀ vu.

Last year, county commissioners invited noted economist Hank Fishkind to a meeting to find out how dire the local economy was and whether it would be prudent to reduce impact fees.

As expected, Fishkind said things were dire.

Commissioners decided not to reduce the fees.

Today, the issue is back in the news, prompted this time by County Commissioner Jim Adkins, who is proposing a six-month to one-year moratorium on impact fees.

As it was last summer, it is the downturn in the economy and the continued rising of the unemployment rate that is the impetus for this latest rate revisiting.

And, coincidentally, Fishkind has just released his latest Fund Real Estate Forecast, which he created and presented recently to the Bay Area Real Estate Council (BAREC).

In a BAREC press release, Fishkind unveiled his latest predictions for the region. Here is what he said about Hernando County:

• In 2009, there will be a slight rebound in the average price of existing single-family homes to around $149,100, up 2 percent from $146,600 in 2008.

By the end of 2012, the average price should reach about $159,900, he said.

• The new single-family home market should bottom out in 2009 when fewer than 50 new homes are projected to close. The average price of a new home should increase only slightly the next several years, he said.

• The new condominium market in Hernando County has not seen more than 10 closings in a single year and this trend is expected to continue, Fishkind said. Condo prices should flatten in the coming years after a significant drop in 2008, he said.

The existing condo market should rebound slightly, with prices remaining at around $100,000 through 2012.

"Both the national and Florida economies are mired in the worst recession since the Great Depression," said Fishkind, who does not project a national recovery until the end of 2009.

"Locally, however, recovery will take longer, as there is always a lag between changing national economic conditions and local improvements," he said.

Florida's population growth is heavily influenced by economic conditions in the Midwest and Northeast.

"As a result, Florida is unlikely to experience expanded migration until the middle of 2010 at best," he said.

For a full report on the Tampa Bay region, visit www.barec.com.

Reporter Michael D. Bates can be reached at 352-544-5290 or mbates@hernandotoday.com.

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