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Expect More Dry Weather
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Published: February 7, 2009
BROOKSVILLE - A La Nina will continue to affect weather patterns in the Southeast - making it likely that the already-low water levels will not improve for the next few months.
La Nina is defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as a "cooler-than-normal sea surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean." It can have a global impact on the weather.
El Nino - the opposite of La Nina - is a warmer-than-normal sea surface.
NOAA unveiled a new alert system for those weather patterns. A La Nina or El Nino Watch is issued when conditions in the Pacific are "favorable for the development of La Nina or El Nino in the next three months."
An advisory is when La Nina or El Nino conditions "have developed and are expected to continue."
"A watch would've been in effect back in December had the system been instituted then," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "But we were fairly certain in our seasonal forecast that Florida would go through a dry (period) well into the spring."
The conditions in the Pacific also will bring milder and drier weather to the Southwest and wetter-than-normal weather to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, according to NOAA. The Pacific Northwest is expected to be cooler than average.
A La Nina can increase the likelihood of an active hurricane season, but forecasters are waiting to see whether conditions in the atmosphere will continue to show those patterns by the start of the season in June.
"It's far too soon to predict that," Halpert said. "What happens between now and then is anyone's guess. The potential of this fading away by then is very real."
This is the second consecutive year for La Nina. The second year is typically milder than the first, said Halpert.
Last year, La Nina dissipated prior to the hurricane season, but remnants still remained in the atmosphere, which made the Atlantic basin more conducive for hurricanes, forecasters have said.
Reporter Tony Holt can be reached at 352-544-5283 or wholt@hernandotoday.com.
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