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Hernando Today

Hurricane Season Predicted To Be Above Normal

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By TONY HOLT

Published: May 22, 2008

TAMPA - The Atlantic Basin should have normal or above normal hurricane activity this year, which means residents in vulnerable areas — like the Gulf Coast — should take measured precautions, meteorologists said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its hurricane forecast Thursday morning.

Meteorologists across the country pay close attention to NOAA's data because it has "a lot more tools and better forecast models" compared to most other sources, said NewsChannel 8 weather producer Megan Hatton.

The Climate Prediction Center outlook calls for "considerable activity" with a 90 percent likelihood of a higher than normal or near normal season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

"It takes into account large-scale climate factors, like a weakening La Nina," Patton said. "Certain factors are weighed more heavily."

A La Nina is a cool sea-surface temperature formation near the Pacific Coast of South America. Such conditions can impact global weather patterns and result in higher hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin.

La Ninas occur two or three times per decade and can linger for up to two years, according to NOAA. As it stands, the water temperature in the Pacific is rising closer to neutral levels.

The outlook for the upcoming hurricane season indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes (Category 3 and above). An average season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, according to NOAA.

"These numbers are not automatically landfall storms," said Hatton.

Last year for instance, few named storms made their way to the U.S. coastline, but two Category 5 hurricanes struck landfall to the south. Felix ravaged Central America and Dean reached Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Reporter Tony Holt can be reached at 352-544-5283 or wholt@hernandotoday.com.

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