Hernando Today
Meteorologists Differ On Hurricane Forecasts
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Published: May 15, 2008
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. - Average can be good, except when it comes to hurricane season.
One bad storm can devastate whole regions, wreck oil refineries and impact the U.S. economy.
That is why people anxiously await any and all hurricane forecasts, even when they come weeks before the season begins.
"They're simply guessing," said Weather Channel hurricane expert Steve Lyons, who rejects mostly all predictions of when, where and how many hurricanes will take shape.
Since 1995, the United States has seen a yearly average of 2.8 tropical storms, 1.9 hurricanes and 0.8 intense hurricanes, according to data compiled by Wunderground.com.
This year, AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting similar numbers for the U.S. coastline — three named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane.
But should they even try to guess how many hurricanes will hit the mainland? Predicting where they will strike can be tricky. Some forecasters, like Lyons, think it's pointless.
"People want us to boil it down to a specific location," said AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist Ken Reeves. "I can't sit here on (May) 15 and say that Tampa is going get hit on a particular date."
Wunderground hurricane expert Jeff Masters is among those who do not like to make any location predictions. The technology to make such a claim doesn't exist.
"Scientists don't have any skill forecasting which part of the country these storms might affect," he said.
Reeves, however, sees enough evidence to suggest the Carolinas are more susceptible to a tropical storm strike this year. The Outer Banks stick out farther into the ocean, making the long ribbon of land the most vulnerable to storms along the Mid-Atlantic.
"There's no question of an increased risk along the Carolinas," Reeves said.
He also mentioned the Northeast, which likely will be hit with two major hurricanes between now and 2016, some meteorologists have predicted.
If a storm's tract misses the Outer Banks and doesn't weaken, it could make a beeline for lower New England, Reeves said.
None of those predictions should carry much weight, Lyons said.
The Weather Channel does not release an annual hurricane forecast for a reason. They're almost always inaccurate, he said.
"We don't think there's much skill in them," Lyons continued. "You can't come close to a complete forecast for the Atlantic … We can't tell you something for sure a week in advance much less a month in advance."
He did agree with Reeves on one point. If there is cooler water temperature off the Pacific Coast of South America, that could led to a more active hurricane season in the wide open Atlantic basin. That phenomenon is called "La Nina."
Conversely, when the water is warm, it causes warmer air temperature, which in turn, leads to more wind shear. That shear tends to suppress hurricane activity.
But that doesn't mean every active hurricane season is the result of La Nina-like conditions. The 2005 season, which included the notorious Hurricane Katrina, came during a summer when temperatures in the Pacific Ocean were "neutral," Masters said.
Several factors come into play for a hurricane to develop — water temperature, wind shear, even the amount of sand particles in the air from the Atlantic Coast of Africa. The more dust is in the air, the more it can disrupt a hurricane's formation.
Either way, it is difficult, maybe impossible, to predict any of those factors so far in advance, Lyons said. A storm's tract can change with little warning. When Katrina hovered over South Florida, forecasters assumed it would head toward the Florida Panhandle and then shift toward the Mid-Atlantic.
Instead, the hurricane grew stronger and was met with a deep level of flow. It turned westward and headed toward coastal Louisiana and Mississippi.
"If a hurricane forms in the middle of the Atlantic, there's no way to predict whether it hits the U.S.," Lyons said.
Reporter Tony Holt can be reached at 352-544-5283 or wholt@hernandotoday.com.
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