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Hernando Today

Active Hurricane Season Predicted

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By TONY HOLT

Hernando Today

Published: June 9, 2008

FORT COLLINS, Colo. - There is nearly a 70 percent chance of a hurricane striking the U.S. coastline this year, said one renowned meteorologist.

The odds of a hurricane making its way to the Gulf Coast are about 44 percent.

Every year, the weather community takes note of what William Gray says about the forthcoming hurricane season. He pores over data in a place far away from the unsettling tropics - in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains.

His predictions are always newsworthy - even though they come weeks after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AccuWeather and Weather Underground put out theirs.

"Everyone who has any affiliation with weather has heard of Dr. Gray," said AccuWeather forecaster John Dlugoenski. "The meteorology community and even the public and media take his forecasts very seriously ... and they should."

Gray - who also has made headlines for his outspoken skepticism of global warming - estimated a higher-than-average year.

He predicted eight hurricanes for the Atlantic basin in 2008, 15 named storms, 80 named storm days, 40 hurricane days, four intense hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) and nine intense hurricane days.

The average number of hurricanes per year is 5.9.

In his report, which was released Tuesday, Gray mentioned how much yesterday's data play a part in predicting what will happen in the future.

"(By) using historical data, there is considerable hindcast (using the past to predict the future) skill available for predicting the upcoming season," he wrote. "However, one must realize that these are statistical forecasts which will fail in some years."

Secondly, the sea-surface temperature off the Pacific coast of South America also plays a big part in predicting cyclone activity. It was discovered 25 years ago that an El Nino - a phenomenon in which the ocean temperature is warmer than normal - suppresses hurricane movement in the Atlantic, Gray wrote.

This year, temperatures are cooler than normal, but they are approaching neutral levels, meteorologists have said.

Conditions in the Atlantic basin also come into play, Gray stated. Based on sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures, it appears more likely this year will be an active season for hurricanes.

Gray mentioned in his published notes that his research partner, Philip J. Klotzbach, assumed primary responsibility for this year's forecast. Gray had been the head researcher for the last 22 years.

Both men will update their hurricane forecast Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1.

Last year, Gray predicted nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes.

The final numbers were six hurricanes and two storms that were Category 3 or higher.

Reporter Tony Holt can be reached at 352-544-5283 or wholt@hernandotoday.com.

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