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More Drilling Won't Reduce Dependence On Foreign Oil

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The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 10, 2008

Tom Cannariato continues to nurse the delusion that we could lower the price of gasoline if only we could put those oil rigs a little closer to shore.

It's interesting that he is so sarcastic about "...those darn Republican envirowhackos." It was, after all, Republican President George Bush I who imposed the offshore drilling moratorium in the first place. And who was the ecocrazy who shut down drilling of the Destin Dome? Well, that would be George Bush II. He was acting to meet the concerns of the governor of Florida, that notorious environmental fanatic, Jeb Bush.

Look, the idea that offshore drilling will change gas prices is a political scam. A presidential order mandated the drilling moratorium, President Bush can undo it any time he wants. Bush's demand that Congress postpone its July 4 recess to deal with offshore drilling was pure election year theater.

Mr. Cannariato seems to believe that we can end our dependence on foreign oil if only we drill some more.

But the U.S. has been producing oil for more than 150 years. There are more than a million oil wells in Texas alone. Drive across the U.S. (while you still can) and you will see one oil field after another. It isn't like the US is off limits to drilling.

Here's the problem: U.S. oil production peaked in 1970. Currently, not only is U.S. production declining, but American proven reserves are also in steep decline. Our known reserves are 20.9 billion barrels of oil, but the U.S. uses 7 billion barrels of oil per year. It is true, as Canniarato claims, that oil companies have made significant finds in the Gulf of Mexico. But exhaustion of older fields is outpacing new discoveries. Known reserves in the Gulf continue to decline.

In addition to the Gulf, our other great oil province is Prudhoe Bay in Alaska. Alaska's oil production is also in steep decline, now less than half its high point of 2.5 million barrels per day. To the west of Prudhoe Bay is the National Petroleum Reserve. To the east is the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Government agencies believe that the two reserves have about the same amount of oil. The Reagan Administration sold leases in the NPR during the 1980s. The companies let the leases expire. The Clinton Administration sold leases in 1998. Now, in 2008, BP and Conoco Phillips are producing some oil, but at a high cost. Although companies are feverishly searching for oil throughout Alaska, and have been working the NPR for 10 years, oil production and known reserves in Alaska continue to decline. If we allow drilling in ANWR, the process will be similar to what has happened in the NPR. ANWR is not going to be the solution to high gas prices.

The moratorium on offshore drilling (within 100 miles of the coast) expires in 2012. I'd guess that it won't be renewed. Does that mean that we'll see a surge of new supply and lower gas prices? No. Even if optimistic estimates of new reserves turn out to be true, it will take several years to find them. The new oil won't appear on the market all at once, but will be stretched out for a couple of decades. The decline in American production might be slowed, but not stopped. As long as our economy is based on oil, there is no hope that the United States will ever become energy independent.

The U.S. has a major problem with oil supply. The major political parties (and their minions at the local level) are not addressing the problem in a responsible way. It's entertaining to manufacture villains to blame but that doesn't solve anything. The U.S. is dependent on imported oil. Oil is getting scarcer in the world. The U.S. does not have enough oil reserves left to affect world supply or the price of oil. If we feel that we are paying too much for gasoline, we have no choice but to cut back our use of gas.

Mr. Cannariato's plan is to wish for more supply while continuing business as usual. If we do that, we won't need any new infrastructure. Those eight lane interstate bicycle trails will do nicely.

Dallas Dunlap

Brooksville

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