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Rudy Slipping; Strategy Backfires

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By MARSHA MERCER, Media General News Service

Published: January 27, 2008

"How," Rudy Giuliani asked a sweaty crowd of snowbirds and Northeastern transplants in Estero, Fla., the other day, "can you not be happy when you're here?"

He was admiring Florida's balmy weather and casual lifestyle, but the question held significance for his presidential aspirations. The former mayor of New York has spent more time in Florida than any other candidate. Now it's crunch time. Will he be happy he stayed so long when the GOP primary votes are counted Tuesday?

After skipping several early contests, Giuliani desperately needs a victory so he can ride a Florida wave to the big states - New York, California, New Jersey - voting on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5. That's his plan, anyway.

But Florida statewide polls are discouraging. Giuliani has slipped to third in the Republican field, behind John McCain and Mitt Romney, who were basically tied. Giuliani was tied with Mike Huckabee, who wasn't even in the state most of last week.

Only a few months ago, Giuliani was riding high in Florida. What happened?

Nori Lapes, 39, of Boca Raton, who makes calls for Giuliani's phone bank, pinpointed her candidate's problem: "He hasn't won in those other states. He didn't compete, and people don't like that. It was too risky a strategy."
Lapes said voters often tell her they're deciding between Giuliani and McCain, the senator from Arizona.

She went to see Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, speak to the Republican Jewish Coalition of Florida in Boca Raton.

She was impressed with Romney's speaking ability, his strong support of Israel and his denunciation of "radical jihadism."

She was sticking with Giuliani, though, because, "I feel strongly about terrorism as an issue. Terrorism has to be the first thing."

But does it? More than six years after the 9/11 attacks, the threat of terrorism as an issue has receded as economic insecurity has grown. The stock markets have been on a wild rollercoaster ride and the country's economic landscape has turned scary.

The Federal Reserve dropped interest rates an astonishing three-fourths of a percentage point last week. Democratic congressional leaders and the president got together on an economic stimulus plan.

Giuilani has tried to broaden his appeal from his leadership after 9/11 to an economic message of tax cuts and stimulus. He promises "the biggest tax reduction in American history."

He and Romney, the venture capitalist, both want to make permanent President Bush's tax cuts, eliminate the estate tax and cut corporate tax rates. Sometimes the choice comes down to presence.

The economy and the war are important to Myka Staryk Monson, 36 of Boca Raton. She's backing Romney.

"I can't see Hillary Clinton sitting down with some sheik somewhere - if they'd even sit down with her. And McCain's demeanor is too rigid and militaristic," she said. "We need someone who's smooth."

She's glad Romney is willing to spend his own personal fortune on his campaign. He has agreed to spend as much as $40 million of his reported $250 million to run for president, according to the Wall Street Journal.

"It means he won't owe anybody anything," Monson said.

The Republican primary could rest on undecideds - a group a Miami Herald poll put at 13 percent. Richard Amann, 72, who runs an online publishing business in Estero, is deciding between Giuliani and Romney. Both meet his first test.

"Some people in the United States have a speech impediment. They're unable to say the words Islamic terrorist," Amann said. "I feel good about any candidate who is able to say those words. I've wiped some people off my list because they can't say those words. That's all the Democrats."

Amann, who has lived in New York and Boston, also wants a president who's a strong executive. He praised Romney's business experience.

"He is an executive officer who has executive experience. When you step into that Oval Office you better know how to run an office."

And he also spoke highly of Giuliani. "It was amazing to see the blooming of that city. Absolutely amazing. He changed it. He knew how to move a government - and he did it."

Amann has until Tuesday to decide whom to make happy in the Sunshine State.

Marsha Mercer can be contacted by e-mail at mmercer@mediageneral.com.

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