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The Power Of Bill

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MARSHA MERCER, Media General News Service

Published: January 13, 2008

Never underestimate the power of Bill.

That's my take-away from New Hampshire. The man who isn't on the ballot looms large over the presidential race.

While pollsters were crowning Barack Obama king of the Granite State in the final days before people voted, I kept hearing the same three little words from women: "I love Bill."

This isn't 1992, and I hadn't asked about him. I was asking about her. And yet some women confessed their love for Bill Clinton the way they talk about chocolate.

Hillary Clinton appeals strongly to women of a certain age, but the former president remains a sentimental favorite with women young and old.

At a Dunkin' Donuts in Dover, N.H., on Monday, Jill Mulligan, 22, said she would probably vote for Obama the next day. But, said the college senior, "If Hillary does win the primary, I'll wholeheartedly support her. I love Bill."

On the other end of the age spectrum, several retirees told me they liked Hillary, but they loved Bill.

Judy Romeo, 62, said she backed Clinton because of her experience as first lady. "She already knows all the people in countries overseas from her time in the White House" - and, "They all like Bill."

Romeo added, "She'll have a lot of help" as president from her husband.

Whoa!
Hillary Clinton would hate being likened in any way to George W. Bush. But I haven't heard voters assume a family member would help out a president since junior was running in 2000. Eight years ago, fans of the first President Bush drew comfort from the idea that dad would step in if the going got rough for junior in international affairs.

It's hard to believe now, but many people were relieved when W picked Dick Cheney as his vice president, because Cheney had experience as secretary of defense with Bush I. We can see how helpful those family ties have been.

Now, Clinton, a senator from New York, portrays herself as the most experienced Democrat in the presidential race. It's ironic that voters, unconsciously perhaps, are buying "two for the price of one." In 1992, the Clintons adopted and abandoned the slogan. Voters then didn't want an activist first lady.

To be sure, many people despise the Clintons - but they aren't voting in Democratic primaries.

The reservoir of good will toward Bill will be important in South Carolina, where half the Democratic electorate is black. Long before Barack Obama's bid to become the actual first black president, Bill Clinton had the title because of his strong ties to the community.

For months, he avoided the campaign limelight. He joined his wife in Iowa, and after she came in a pitiful third there, Bill Clinton was everywhere in New Hampshire. His reviews were tepid in the Granite State - reports of halls with empty rows of seats and audience drift. But when the voters had their say - bingo! - Bill was back. Hillary Clinton beat Obama by almost 3 percentage points.

Had nearly every pre-primary poll not projected a significant Obama victory, Obama might have been able to spin Clinton's paltry win as a sign of her weakness. But the Clintons quickly jumped on her surprising victory as if had been a landslide.

Only about 5 percent of people have actually voted, so it's far too soon to anoint anybody on either side. Anything could still happen.

And yet, the glow of Bill Clinton's star power can't be denied. Political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia cited an obscure finding from New Hampshire's exit polls that suggests how much light Bill reflects on Hillary.

If Bill Clinton had been on the ballot, Democratic voters were asked, would you have voted for him or her? Hillary Clinton voters by 58 percent to 27 percent preferred her husband to her.

"This is not a compliment to Hillary, but it's obvious that without Bill, she would not be in a position to win the party nomination," Sabato wrote in his "Crystal Ball" newsletter last week.

That's the power of Bill.

What do you think? Comment at www.mgwashington.com or e-mail mmercer@mediageneral.com

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