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Hernando Today

Fay Expected To Become Catagory 1 Hurricane

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By TONY HOLT

Hernando Today

Published: August 18, 2008

BROOKSVILLE - Tropical Storm Fay killed four people during the weekend - and that was before it had pelted Cuba and reemerged as a Category 1 hurricane.

By the time it passes over the Florida Keys tonight, the storm could have winds greater than 70 miles per hour and make a beeline toward Tampa or sail along the Gulf Coast in the direction of Tallahassee. No one knew as of Sunday night.

Either way, Hernando County is expected to get drenched with rain or worse yet, get hit with a dangerous storm surge.

"We're anticipating now that it will have tropical force winds when it reaches us," said Hernando County Emergency Management Director Cecilia Patella. "We have to keep watching it."

Patella was on local and statewide conference calls Saturday, getting updates from the National Weather Service and finding out what other emergency management agencies in the area are doing in preparation for the storm.

By all estimation, Fay will be the first hurricane or tropical storm to hit Florida since August 2006 when Tropical Storm Ernesto struck the Keys. Tropical Storm Barry reached Tampa in June 2007, but only after it was downgraded to a tropical depression.

The storm caused severe damage Saturday to the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A Dominican woman was killed along with her 13-year-old niece and 5-year-old nephew when they tried to ride over a swollen river in a car. A man also drowned in Haiti when he tried to cross a stream of flowing water, according to the Associated Press.

As of 5 p.m. Sunday, the storm's track had it brushing past St. Petersburg on Tuesday and hitting land south of Horseshoe Beach - located 70 miles west of Gainesville - by 2 p.m. Wednesday.

Patella's agency planned to "ramp up" its response today as the storm passes Cuba and picks up speed in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm's track will be more accurate by then, she said.

The ground is saturated due to the amount of precipitation Hernando County has had in the last two months. Consequently, there is a greater chance of flash flooding if the area is doused with torrential rain.

Tropical storm conditions can lead to wind damage in addition to flooding. Residents are being told to remain inside during the storm.

"With any storm there are dangerous conditions," Patella said.

Forecasters would not commit Sunday to any landfall predictions for Florida. Stronger indications of the storm's path likely will come after it crosses Cuba this morning and regains strength.

The warm waters and low wind shear in the Atlantic mean the storm likely will increase to hurricane strength by the time it reaches Florida.

Fay could hit anywhere from Naples to Apalachicola, said AccuWeather meteorologist Andy Mussoline.

"Conditions will begin to deteriorate late Monday night into Tuesday," he warned. "The (Tampa) area could get some very heavy rainfall and winds ... A few gusts past 74 (mph) isn't out of the question."

As of Sunday night, Fay was moving northwest at 15 mph. The slow-moving storm could dump a dangerous level of rainfall throughout parts of Hernando County, Mussoline said.

There were some reports of up to eight inches of rain in Cuba.

A second concern is storm surge. If Fay travels west of Tampa - which was how forecasters were tracking it Sunday - it could raise water levels and submerge roadways near the Gulf Coast.

Mussoline said there could be a storm surge of up to four feet in Hernando County.

"That is definitely a concern," he said.

For areas north of Hernando Beach, that surge could be as high as six feet, said Nick Petro, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

As of Sunday night, hurricane watches were issued for most of the Tampa region and as far north as Tarpon Springs. Hernando County was expected to follow suit today.

"These are preliminary numbers, so a lot could change," Petro said of Sunday's storm track. "We could be fine-tuning these numbers as we go forward."

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist ordered a state of emergency Saturday.

On Sunday, Sarasota County ordered mobile home residents to evacuate their houses and issued a voluntary evacuation for those living on the islands.

Tolls along Florida's Turnpike were suspended in South Florida to facilitate evacuations for those residents.

The National Hurricane Center is offering an audio feed or "podcast" on its Web site. The airings are updated every few hours.

The podcast can be accessed at www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/index.shtml.

Reporter Tony Holt can be reached at 352-544-5283 or wholt@hernandotoday.com.

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